** CNN just did a story on this. Six million people left Facebook in May equaling 4 percent of the U.S. users.
It has happened. My grandmother (whom I call mema) is now on Facebook and has added me as a friend. I suspect my aunts of having something to do with these shenanigans. Obviously working in internet marketing has taught me a few things about what to post online so mema won’t endure ridiculous photos of her perfect granddaughter on the internet. But, the addition of my mema on the social media superpower leads me to a larger question; is Facebook on the outs?
Typical product marketing and launches begin with innovators. Those are the people who will buy it or use it just because it’s the new, hot thing. This principle is from the Diffusion of Innovations theory. Basically, it outlines the curve in which people adopt new products in a marketplace. They’re broken down into innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Typically laggards are older people, set in their ways, that adopt a product late into the game. Personally, I’ve also found that by the time laggards enter the market the innovators, early adopters and early majority are ready for something new.
I’m taking that fact that my mema being on Facebook as a sign of descent. More recently, I’ve been spouting out some Nostradamus type predictions that have ruffled a few feathers. Let me preface this by saying, I’m not a statistician, nor am I involved in the philosophical or psychological nature of humans. I am coming from a personal experience perspective and, more importantly, a marketing perspective. I think Facebook will be over in three years at the most. All the red flags are there. Mema is a red flag, the massive corporate influx on Facebook is a red flag, the tremendous amount of advertising is a red flag, the spamming and viruses are red flags, and finally, the age of Facebook is a red flag.
While Facebook is only six years old, the innovators and early adopters have used this for at least five years. Quite honestly, it’s not cool to us anymore, although, seeing some people from high school on Facebook has its benefits. For people of my innovation grouping, Facebook has become something like AIM or chain emails. We’re just using it because we’ve already been camped out there for a while and we’re waiting for something cooler and more exclusive to come along.
What do you think? Is Facebook just getting started or is it over?